Before anyone starts a flaming war. The data I based my theories on can be found here: http://wihlah.aleander.no. The experiment is described here: https://wihlah.wordpress.com/2009/01/12/the-match-report-analysis-experiment-the-background/. I am more than happy to receive critical and constructive feedback on these experiments. I cannot guarantee that I didn’t miss something, so If you notice something out of place, don’t hesitate. Suggestions to further experiments or calculations are also more than welcomed.
The chances in a match
In the forum it has been said that each match has 10 set chances. I do not believe this is exactly true, and we have been given examples of matches with more goals. Special events are not a part of “chances” as such, and maybe also penalties. I simply haven’t been able to figure that out. What we DO know is that not all chances are reported on the match report. So IF the max of 10 chances is true, the average number of chances should not be above 10. Because of the crappy (hope no one is offended by this) teams I have been playing with this season, most of the chances should statistically be on the match report, as there isn’t that much of a chance the defenders/midfielders of my opposing teams would stop anything (except for det beste teamet, which can clearly be seen on the match reports of those two matches as well).
The average number of chances in my 14 matches this season is 9,64. Remembering that only real chances are reported, the claim of max 10 chances in a match seem to hold up.
The distribution
There were 135 chances in the 14 matches of which:
- 88,1 % of those were regular chances
- 5,2 % were free-kicks
- 3,7 % were penalties
- 0,7 % were corners (only one this season clearly a corner)
- 2,2 % were special events (long shots)
This means that 9,6% of the chances were set-pieces chances. HT-Tjecken (I believe, the source of the statement is much appreciated), has claimed that around 10% of the chances are supposed to be of that type, which proves fairly true.
First half vs second half
The chances between the two halves are distributed as follows:
| First half | Second Half | |
| Total chances | 50,37 % | 49,63% |
| Regular chances | 52,94% | 47,06% |
| Free kicks | 14,28%* | 85,71 %* |
| Penalites | 20,00%* | 80%* |
*Note that there were only 7 free kicks and 5 penalties this season, and so this could very likely be lack of data. But it would not suprise me if Hattrick has actually taken this into account either, it is nevertheless a fun fact.
Conclusion on chances in general
The claim that each game has 10 chances distributed between the teams has yet to be called false, but It has not been proven either. The claim that 10% of all chances are set pieces chances, seems valid enough with my data at least.
I will look more closely into chance distribution vs playmaking advantage, effectivity/efficiency, chance vs player position distribution and attack side distribution with the AiM tactic later on.
What I have learned about Hattrick (so far....) 